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updated sept 22, 8:30am:
2-4ft Long period SSW swell on tap for Baja California Sur, Sept 23-30th
September 2022 will close out with a consistent week of small, but long period swell accompanied by light to modest prevailing NW winds. Largest on afternoon of sept 24th with reinforcing pulses late sept 27th. Possible addition of short period swell sept 24-26 from tropical storm Newton.
Tropical Storm Formation south of Los Cabos, Baja California Sur Sept 17-23rd
Development of a tropical storm gathering moisture off the coast of Jalisco, projected to move NW, passing under Los Cabos and will continue westward several hundred miles out to sea. Surf looks best 17th - 19th with a forecast of 4-6ft at 11s, followed by very short period swell sept 20th-22nd, due to the proximity of storm. Wind pattern shifts from strong NW winds on 17th to swirling or S - SW wind from 18th to 22nd. Expect scattered showers throughout Baja Sur 19th-21st.
4ft South swell approaching Baja California September 12th - 15th
Forecast is predicting a shorter period pulse of swell from another storm track off South America, sending a more southerly angled 4-5ft @ 12 seconds swell to Baja California Sur, accompanied by 10-15 knot NNW-NW winds for the entite week. This swell is potentially reinforced by similar sized longer period swell Sept 14-17th.
Hurricane Kay to sweep Baja California Sur Pacific coastline September 7th - 9th
Formation of tropical storm south of Cabo, headed NW, directly up the peninsula on the Pacific coast, producing large wind swell event and rain throughout Baja California Sur, potentially making land fall in Central Baja. Storm will upgrade to Category 2-3 Hurricane 'Kay' with sustained wind speeds of 30-40 knots, and gusts of 60 knots Due to proximity of storm pattern, most swell in Baja California Sur will be disorganized, accompanied by strong SW-W wind. Expect flooding and high winds for all coastal Baja California Sur, and potentially Baja California(Norte).
Mid Period 4-5ft SW swell approaching Sept 5th - 8th
Forecast is predicting a week of fun surf from a decent size storm track off South America, sending 4-5ft SW swell @15+ seconds to all of California and Southern Baja. Winds will remain light until Sept 8-9th as a tropical storm system moves up the Sea of Cortes, causing strong west or swirling winds on the Pacific side for 24-48 hrs.
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